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What Direction Will Heating Oil Prices Go?
As a refined product of crude oil, heating oil prices reflect both shifts in the overall oil market as well as the specific shifts in demand for home heating. These related variables result in rapid shifts in heating oil prices, which can impair many low income families during times of difficulty. This winter, increased demand for home heating is anticipated to increase the price of heating oil, especially as overall demand for crude oil increases in developing nations. The falling value of the dollar is putting increased pressure on heating oil prices, resulting in shifts that create uncertainty for home owners headed into the winter season.
Short term trends suggest that home heating oil prices will increase this winter based upon limited supplies and increasing international demand. There are seasonal shifts in the heating oil market, and a sharp increase in winter demand results in marked increases in overall prices.
Heating oil requires extensive refining, requiring that oil be processed domestically or imported from abroad. The primary sources of fuel oil are from Central America or Canada, and limited supply can lead to sharp spikes in short run oil prices. The seasonal shifts result in sharp increases in prices when refining capacity is limited, which occurs in a wide variety of cases. Producers allocate a finite set of crude production for home heating based upon estimated demand although unexpected winter weather patterns can result in rapid shifts in the overall oil equation, which can shift oil prices upwards rapidly.
The primary determinant of heating oil prices is the seasonal refining capacity, and recent trends suggest that heating oil demand rapidly outpaces supply, resulting in sharp increases in heating oil prices. Analysts anticipate a cold winter season this year, which can result in a rapid increase in heating oil demand, driving up prices to near highs. While the possibility of a mild winter still remains, the limited refining supply increases the probability of an imbalance.
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What are we going to make plastics from when we run out of oil? Is there an alternative method to make them?
Or are we going to run out of plastics when we run out of oil?
Looks like we can use natural gas, coal and vegetable oil if we really need more plastic than we already have. We can also start mining for plastics at dumpsites!
The Basics of Plastic Manufacturing
The term "plastics" encompasses organic materials, such as the elements carbon (C), hydrogen (H), nitrogen (N), chlorine (Cl) and sulfur (S), which have properties similar to those naturally grown in organic materials such as wood, horn and rosin. Organic materials are based on polymers, which are produced by the conversion of natural products or by syththesis from primary chemicals coming from oil, natural gas or coal.
The plastic manufacturing process begins by heating the hydrocarbons in a "cracking process." Here, in the presence of a catalyst, larger molecules are broken down into smaller ones such as ethylene (ethene) C2H4, propylene (propene) C3H6, and butene C4H8 and other hydrocarbons. The yield of ethylene is controlled by the cracking temperature and is more than 30% at 850°C and such products as styrene and vinylchloride can be produced in subsequent reactions. These are then the starting materials for several other types of plastics. Therefore, this process results in the conversion of the natural gas or crude oil components into monomers such as ethylene, propylene, butene and styrene.
These monomers are then chemically bonded into chains called polymers. Different combinations of monomers yield plastic resins with different properties and characteristics. Each monomer yields a plastic resin with different properties and characteristics. Combinations of monomers produce copolymers with further property variations.
The resulting resins may be molded or formed to produce several different kinds of plastic products with application in many major markets. The variability of resin permits a compound to be tailored to a specific design or performance requirement. This is why certain plastics are best suited for some applications while others are best suited for entirely different applications. For instance, impact strength measures the ability of a material to withstand shock loading. Heat resistance protects the resin from exposure to excessive temperatures. Chemical resistance protects the resin from breakdown due to exposure to environmental chemicals.
Some examples of material properties in plastic product applications are:
Hot-filled packaging used for products such as ketchup
Chemical-resistant packaging used for products such as bleach
Impact strength of car bumpers
The Structure of Polymers
Polymers are created by the chemical bonding of many identical or related basic units and those produced from a single monomer type are called homopolymers. These polymers are specifically made of small units bonded into long chains. Carbon makes up the backbone of the molecule and hydrogen atoms are bonded along the carbon backbone.
Polymers that contain primarily carbon and hydrogen are classified as organic polymers. Polypropylene, polybutylene, polystyrene and polymethylpentene are examples of these.
Even though the basic makeup of many polymers is carbon and hydrogen, other elements can also be involved. Oxygen, chlorine, fluorine, nitrogen, silicon, phosphorous and sulfur are other elements that are found in the molecular makeup of polymers. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) contains chlorine. Nylon contains nitrogen. Teflon contains fluorine. Polyester and polycarbonates contain oxygen. There are also some polymers that, instead of having a carbon backbone, have a silicon or phosphorous backbone and these are considered inorganic polymers.
The Additives
When plastics emerge from reactors, they do not have the desired properties that make it a material of choice, that is, it is considered a raw material. In order to achieve a commercial product, the plastic is subject to further treatment and the inclusion of additives which are selected to give it specified properties. Most polymers are blended with additives during raw material processing into their finished parts. Additives are incorporated into polymers to alter and improve their basic mechanical, physical or chemical properties. Additives are also used to protect the polymer from the degrading effects of light, heat, or bacteria; to change such polymer properties as flow; to provide product color; and to provide special characteristics such as improved surface appearance or reduced friction.
Types of Additives:
antioxidants: for outside application
colorants: for colored plastic parts
foaming agents: for styrofoam cups
plasticizers: used in toys and food processing equipment
One of the most important classes of plastics additives are plasticizers. Vegetable oil plasticizers provide about fifteen percent of the total US market for plasticizers, and represent about eight percent of the industrial market for vegetable oils
Although vegetable oil derived plasticizers tend to be more expensive on a cost per pound basis than petrochemical plasticizers, they offer performance benefits which can make their overall economics favorable. Petrochemical plasticizers such as phthalates provide only flexibility, but do not contribute to heat and light stability. As a result additional stabilizing additives must be added to supplement these plasticizers. Metallic stabilizers based on metals like cadmium, lead and barium are added to plastics to achieve stability to heat and light. But these stabilizers have high toxicity, and are unsuitable for many applications, particularly for food packaging and medical uses. Vegetable oil plasticizers achieve a double benefit by eliminating both the cost and the toxicity of metallic stabilizers. The final economics of use depend on the specific plastic formulation and the relative costs of the plasticizer versus the stabilizers which are displaced. In many cases the economic benefits of using vegetable oil derived plasticizers alone will justify their use
Converting Your Car to Run on Vegetable Oil - WEG#6 (Part 2)
